The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre has released its Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for 2015-16, which shows the Wimmera will have above normal bushfire potential this summer.

The report said the above normal forecast was mostly due to a strengthening El Niño over the Pacific Ocean, which was now tracking as one of the strongest on record.

“There have also been significantly below average rainfall in the past decade and the dry conditions mean any surface moisture from rain will quickly decline once temperatures start to warm up,” the report said.

The report said 2014 was Australia’s third warmest year on record, and when combined with long-term rainfall deficiencies, an early start to the bushfire season was likely.

Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning operations manager Mal Gibson said the dry conditions were very concerning.

“The conditions out in the forest are extremely dry and the burn-offs we have done in the region has shown signs of significant fire behaviour, which is a real concern,” he said.

Mr Gibson said if the region did not receive more rain in the next few months, there would definitely be a heightened bushfire risk. 

“It is drier at the moment than it was this time last year,” he said.

Mr Gibson encouraged residents to be aware of the dry conditions over the next few months and behave accordingly.

“If people are burning off, they need to do so with great care,” he said.

Some Wimmera towns have received only half their average winter rainfall, which follows on from a drier than average autumn. 

Emergency Management Commissioner Craig Lapsley said the climate forecast indicated Victoria could potentially see its summer season start earlier than usual.

“This is an early warning to Victorians to carry out fire prevention works in October and November,” he said.

“Preparing early will be critical as it's likely the season will be upon us from December and through to February.

“An above normal season means that there is a potential for increased fire activity and while we don‟t want to scare Victorians, we do want to give people the information and tools they need to keep safe.

“Summer is not just about the potential for fire. It‟s about heat health, road and water safety and they will be important messages over the summer months as many Victorians take time out to holiday and travel across the state.”

Mr Lapsley said areas of particular risk this year were in parts of central and western Victoria, which had seen record-low rainfall.

“This includes Horsham, Ballarat, Bendigo and surrounding areas, but there is also a risk around high population areas on the outskirts of Melbourne and where the bush interfaces with housing and built up areas.”

Heading into summer, emergency management agencies and departments will also be taking steps to prepare, with 17 pre-season briefings planned for September and October. The briefings include exercises and discussion around fire, heat and multi-agency readiness, response and recovery.