Grain growers throughout the southern cropping region are advised to expect a heightened risk of frost this season due to the developing El Nino climate event.
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Although maximum temperatures are generally warmer than average during El Nino years, decreased cloud cover often leads to cooler than average night-time temperatures during winter and spring.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, regions of southern New South Wales and northern Victoria, for example, can experience 15 to 30 per cent more frost days during El Nino than the historical average.
Dr Peter Hayman, Principal Scientist in Climate Applications with the South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI), the research arm of Primary Industries and Regions SA (PIRSA), says reduced soil moisture and clear nights - conditions typically associated with El Nino events - are conducive to frost.
Dr Hayman, who is involved in frost research projects being funded by the Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC) through its National Frost Initiative, said while the risk of frost was expected to be increased this year, the exact timing and frequency of frost events could not be predicted.
"Frosts are high-consequence, low-frequency events, which means they are difficult to predict and manage, and finding information can be hard," Dr Hayman said.
With winter crops already in the ground, he said frost damage to crops could not be prevented but growers could reduce their losses through early identification of damage and implementation of strategies to salvage frosted crops.
Dr Hayman encouraged growers and their advisers to seek information to support their management decisions from the GRDC (www.grdc.com.au) which has produced numerous resources to assist growers in dealing with frost.
The GRDC is continuing its long-term commitment to funding frost-related research, with its recently launched five year National Frost Initiative focused on identifying and delivering practical genetic, management and environmental solutions to assist growers to manage the impact of frost.
One of the GRDC-funded environmental prediction projects involving Dr Hayman and being led by Dr James Risbey from CSIRO, will investigate forecast and management options for mitigating extreme temperature impacts on grains.
